Intel predicts ubiquitous, almost-zero-energy computing by 2020

Taken from: http://www.extremetech.com/computing/136043-intel-predicts-ubiquitous-almost-zero-energy-computing-by-2020

Intel often uses the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) as a platform to discuss its long-term vision for computing as well as more practical business initiatives. This year, the company has discussed the shrinking energy cost of computation as well as a point when it believes the energy required for “meaningful compute” will approach zero and become ubiquitous by the year 2020. The company didn’t precisely define “meaningful compute,” but I think in this case we can assign a solid working definition. Adding two integers together is computing, but it isn’t particularly meaningful. Accurately measuring geospatial location via GPS, making a phone call, or playing a game is meaningful.

The idea that we could push the energy cost of computing down to nearly immeasurable levels is exciting. It’s the type of innovation that’s needed to drive products like Google Glass or VR headsets like the Oculus Rift. Unfortunately, Intel’s slide neatly sidesteps the greatest problems facing such innovations — the cost of computing already accounts for less than half the total energy expenditure of a smartphone or other handheld device. Some of the recent trends in smartphones, like the push for high-quality Retina displays and LTE connectivity, have significantly increased device power consumption. Smaller CPUs and more power-efficient components have been offset by higher storage capacities and additional RAM.

Can Intel build small compute engines with a near-zero cost of calculation by 2020? Maybe it can. But the real question is whether Intel, or other manufacturers, can manufacture the touch screens, displays, radios, speakers, cameras, and audio processors that would go into such devices to drive the ubiquitious computing revolution. Lithium-air batteries may eventually be capable of replacing today’s current lithium-ion designs, but commercial Li-air is thought to be at least 10 years away.

This doesn’t mean technology won’t advance, but it suggests a more deliberate, incremental pace as opposed to an upcoming revolution. Smartphones of 2018-2020 may be superior to top-end devices of the present day in much the same way that modern computers are more powerful than desktops from the 2006 era. Modern rigs have significant advantages — but 2006 hardware is still quite serviceable in a variety of environments. The early years of the smartphone revolution were marked by enormous leaps forward from year to year, but we may already be reaching the end of that quick advance phase.